Research on Science and Technology Foresight

Overview of research

In Japan, the Science and Technology Agency began carrying out large-scale foresight surveys using the Delphi method ^[note] in the early 1970s. Subsequently, the surveys have been repeated about every five years. While in charge of the fifth (1992) through eighth (2004) surveys since the 1990s, NISTEP improved its forecasting technique based on the Delphi method, which has become a world standard. The STFC has cooperated with Germany and other countries to carry out surveys, and many other countries have conducted their own surveys by reference to NISTEP surveys.

^[Note]Delphi method:

Numerous experts are repeatedly surveyed with identical questions, with the results of previous rounds fed back to the respondents in order to draw out a consensus.

In FY 2003-2004, the STFC carried out the Science and Technology Foresight Survey ("Foresight Survey") using a Grant in Aid of Special Coordination Funds for Promoting Science and Technology. Based on the goal of providing basic information for discussion of the Third Science and Technology Basic Plan (FY 2006-2010), the STFC carried out this eighth Foresight Survey in continuous direct collaboration with the Council for Science and Technology Policy and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology.

The eighth Foresight Survey comprised four studies. In addition to the Delphi survey that has been carried out in the past, it added three other surveys, a "socioeconomic needs analysis," a "study on rapidly developing research areas," and a "scenario analysis on the development of hot science and technology fields." The eighth survey is characterized by its combination of extrapolative methods and normative methods to analyze a wide range of targets, from basic science to socioeconomic needs.

Subsequent to the Foresight Survey, the STFC carried out additional follow up with bibliometric analysis. Furthermore, it held workshops on themes such as mathematics and robotics that the survey results suggested deserved further analysis. In addition, the STFC is addressing the development of new methods for comprehensive science and technology forecasting. Through links and cooperation with overseas foresight institutes, the STFC is serving as an international center of foresight research.

Structure of the eighth Foresight Survey

1. Socioeconomic needs analysis

   This analysis addressed the relationships between social/economic needs and current science and technology. It identified social/economic needs for which science and technology are expected to provide solutions mainly around 2015. During this process, the opinions of many people, not just science and technology experts, were sought through surveys of the public and forums for the public and businesspeople.

2. Study on rapidly developing research areas

   Using an international citation database, the study grouped scientific papers with co-citation relation (based on the idea that there is a connection between papers with a high number of simultaneous citations). The study extracted 153 areas with a rapidly-growing number of related papers (hot areas where research is rapidly progressing). Furthermore, the study analyzed Japan's presence in such research areas over time.

3. Scenario analysis on the development of hot science and technology fields

   This analysis looked over the coming 10-30 years to select about 50 themes and areas with a high social/economic necessity or the potential to produce radical new knowledge. After seeking recommendations from a broad array of relevant academic societies, two leaders in each area were selected and asked to write scenarios based on their individual expert opinions. The scenarios include current knowledge, expected development, and action that should be taken by Japan.

4. Delphi survey

   The new concept of "area" was introduced in this survey. Using a hierarchical structure of "field, area (groups of technologies that show the direction of a field's development), and topic (technology that typifies an area)", the STFC surveyed experts regarding 13 fields, 130 areas, and 858 topics. Regarding the areas, the survey examined expected impacts and Japan's R&D level. For the topics, the survey examined expected times of technical realization and social application and policies to promote them at each stage.

For the 130 areas, we extracted the top one-third (43 areas) in terms of each of three expected effects (expansion of intellectual assets, economic impacts, and social impacts) and distributed them according to each effect. Areas in overlapping positions were among the highest in each of the relevant areas

Areas with expected large impacts (from Delphi survey)

Japan's R&D levels relative to those of the USA (x-axis) and the EU (y-axis) are plotted. The level "5" is even, while higher numbers mean Japan leads, and lower numbers mean Japan trails.
It is notable that Japan leads the EU in many areas in information and communications and nanotechnology and materials and leads both the USA and the EU in some, but trails both the USA and the EU in many life science areas.

R&D levels relative to USA and Europe (from Delphi survey)

Examples of degree of importance to Japan, time of technological realization (time when the technical environment, etc., for the expected function will be ready), time of social application (time when the realized technology can be utilized as products, services, etc.), and effective measures that should be taken by government towards technological realization are shown.

Results for topics (from Delphi survey)

(a)

(b)

Chart (a) above plots mutual relationships among 153 research areas obtained by database analysis. It was created by comparing the field distribution of the core papers comprising research areas and using a gravity model that works according to "gravity" among similar fields. Research areas in colored regions on the map are those where at least 60 percent of core papers lean towards specific fields such as clinical medicine, physics, and mathematics, while those inside the region bounded by a dotted-line are interdisciplinary and cross-field rather than leaning towards a specific field.
The core papers of 54 areas, about one-third of the 153 areas obtained through database analysis, are interdisciplinary and cross-field rather than belonging to a specific field. This indicates that a considerable number of rapidly developing research areas are interdisciplinary and cross-field in nature.
Chart (b) shows areas among the 153 where Japan's share of the core papers is greater than 15 percent. Detailed analysis of core papers found that Japan's presence is relatively large in research areas related to physics, chemistry, and plant and animal science. It also found a significant presence in interdisciplinary and cross-field areas.

Structure of extracted fields (from the study on rapidly developing research areas)