NISTEP REPORT No.52

THE SIXTH
TECHNOLOGY FORECAST SURVEY
-- Future Technology in Japan Toward The Year 2025 --

June 1997
Fourth Policy-Oriented Research Group
National Institute of Science and Technology Policy
(NISTEP)
Science and Technology Agency
JAPAN

CONTENTS(PDF)

  1. CHAPTER 1 OUTLINE
    1. 1.Objectives
    2. 2.Implementation structure
    3. 3.Outline
    4. 4.Reading the survey results
    5. 5.Presentation of information
  2. CHAPTER 2 SURVEY RESULTS (GENERAL FINDINGS)
    1. 1.Topics with a high degree of importance
      1. 1.1 Overall trends
      2. 1.2 Trends in forecasted realization time
      3. 1.3 Relationship with expected effect
    2. 2. Major technological trends in expected effect.
      1. 2.1 Trends in each fi
      2. 2.2 Trends in forecasted realization time.
      3. 2.3.Relationship with current leading countries etc.
      4. 2.4 Relationship with measures the government should adopt
      5. 2.5. Relationship with potential problems
    3. 3. Trends in forecasted realization time.
      1. 3.1 Overall trends
      2. 3.2 Comparison of first and second round questionnaires.
      3. 3.3 Forecasted realization times by respondents with a high degree of expertise
      4. 3.4 Topics with a high gwill not be realizedh response rate
      5. 3.5 Chronological table of technology forecast
    4. 4. Leading countries et
      1. 4.1 Trends in each field
      2. 4.2 Topics with a high gUSAh response rate
      3. 4.3 Topics with a high gEUh response rate
      4. 4.4 Topics with a high gFormer Soviet Union and Eastern Europeh response rate.
      5. 4.5 Topics with a high gJapanh response rate
      6. 4.6 Topics with a high gOther countriesh response rate
    5. 5. Effective measures the government should adopt in Japan.
      1. 5.1 Overall trends
      2. 5.2 Foster researchers, engineers and research assistants (Foster human resources)
      3. 5.3 Enhance systems to promote personnel exchanges among the industrial, academic and
      4. government sectors and cooperation among different fields of science and technology
      5. (Promote exchanges among industrial, academic and government sectors and different
      6. fields).
      7. 5.4 Upgrade advanced R&D facilities and equipment and make them available for more
      8. widespread use ( Upgrade advanced facilities and equipment).
      9. 5.5 Develop a research base comprising data bases, standard reference material, genetic
      10. resources and the like (Develop a research base)
      11. 5.6 Increase the governmentfs funding for research (Increase government research funding)
      12. 5.7 Adjust relevant regulations (relax/toughen/establish/abolish).
    6. 6. Potential problems in Japan
      1. 6.1 Overall treads.
      2. 6.2 Adverse effect on the natural environment
      3. 6.3 Adverse effect on safety (disaster prevention, health, security, privacy etc.)
      4. 6.4 Adverse effect on morals, culture or society
    7. 7. Intersecting technological fields
      1. 7.1 Setting the intersecting axes
      2. 7.2 Aging countermeasures
      3. 7.3 Safety
      4. 7.4 Environmental preservation etc.
      5. 7.5 Common base technologies
    8. 8. Identical and similar topics among fields
      1. 8.1 Examples of topics with similar results
      2. 8.2 Examples of topics with a recognized difference in forecasted realization time.
      3. 8.3 Examples of topics with a recognized difference in degree of importance
    9. 9. Comparison with forecasted realization time and degree of importance results in the 5th survey
      1. 9.1 Trends by field.
      2. 9.2 Topics with ealier/later forecasted realization times
      3. 9.3 Topics with a significant change in degree of importance
    10. 10. Assessment and analysis of the results of the 1st and 2nd surveys
      1. 10.1 Purpose
      2. 10.2 Assessment me
      3. 10.3 Analysis of realization rate
      4. 10.4 Relationship between degree of imprecate and realization rate.
      5. 10.5 Forecasted realization time and realization rate.
      6. 10.6 Unrealized topics
      7. 10.7 Topics realized early
  3. CHAPTER 3 SURVEY RESULTS (FINDINGS BY FIELD)
    1. 1. Survey results in gMaterials and processingh
      1. 1.1. Trends in noteworthy domains
        1. 1.1.1. Precision synthesis and structural control through the manipulation of atoms and molecules
        2. 1.1.2. Incorporation of high-level computer science into materials and processing design
        3. 1.1.3. Elucidation of biofunctions and their incorporation into the development of highly functional materials and
        4. processes
        5. 1.1.4. Development of materials and processes connected with global problems
      2. 1.2. Forecast topic framework
      3. 1.3. Topics with high degree of importance
      4. 1.4. Forecasted realization times
      5. 1.5. Current leading countries etc
      6. 1.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
      7. 1.7. Table of survey results
    2. 2. Survey results in gElectronicsh
      1. 2.1. Trends in noteworthy domains
        1. 2.1.1. Microelectronics
        2. 2.1.2. Optoelectronics
        3. 2.1.3. Molecular, bio, sensor electronics
        4. 2.1.4. Storage and display el
      2. 2.2. Forecast topic framework
      3. 2.3. Topics with high degree of importance
      4. 2.4. Forecasted realization times
      5. 2.5. Current leading countries etc
      6. 2.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
      7. 2.7. Table of survey results
    3. 3. Survey results in gInformationh
      1. 3.1. Trends in noteworthy domains
        1. 3.1.1. Computers and related equipment
        2. 3.1.2 Networks
        3. 3.1.3. Software and algorithm
        4. 3.1.4. Lifestyle, medical care, welfare and disaster prevention
        5. 3.1.5. Society, work, and the local community
        6. 3.1.6. Education and entertainment
      2. 3.2. Forecast topic framework
      3. 3.3. Topics with high degree of importance
      4. 3.4. Forecasted realization times
      5. 3.5. Current leading countries etc
      6. 3.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
      7. 3.7. Table of survey results
    4. 4. Survey results in gLife scienceh
      1. 4.1. Trends in noteworthy domains
        1. 4.1.1. Progress in cancer resea
        2. 4.1.2. High-speed genome analysis technology and application of genome information
        3. 4.1.3. Molecular mechanisms of development, differentiation and morphogenesis
        4. 4.1.4. Brain functions
        5. 4.1.5. Elucidation of plant functions and its use
        6. 4.1.6. Structural biology
        7. 4.1.7. Substance and energy conversion
        8. 4.1.8. Immune system
        9. 4.1.9. Medical engineering
        10. 4.1.10. Sensors and computers
      2. 4.2. Forecast topic framework
      3. 4.3. Topics with high degree of importance
      4. 4.4. Forecasted realization times
      5. 4.5. Current leading countries etc
      6. 4.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
      7. 4.7. Table of survey results
    6. 5. Survey Results in gSpaceh
      1. 5.1. Trends in noteworthy domains
        1. 5.1.1. Earth observation/global environment
        2. 5.1.2. International space science activities
        3. 5.1.3. Space transportation
        4. 5.1.4. Communication and con
        5. 5.1.5. New outlook of space environment utilization
      2. 5.2. Forecast topic framework
      3. 5.3. Topics with high degree of importance
      4. 5.4. Forecasted realization times
      5. 5.5. Current leading countries etc
      6. 5.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
      7. 5.7. Table of survey results
    7. 6. Survey Results in gMarine Science and Earth Scienceh
      1. 6.1. Trends in noteworthy domains
        1. 6.1.1. Degree of importance to Japan
        2. 6.1.2. Expected effect
        3. 6.1.3. Forecasted realization t
        4. 6.1.4. Leading countries
        5. 6.1.5. Effective measures government should adopt in Japan
        6. 6.1.6. Potential problems in Japan
      2. 6.2. Forecast topic framework
      3. 6.3. Topics with high degree of importance
      4. 6.4. Forecasted realization times
      5. 6.5. Current leading countries etc
      6. 6.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
      7. 6.7. Table of survey results
    8. 7. Survey Results in gResources and Energy
      1. 7.1. Survey Results in gResourcesh
        1. 7.1.1. Trends in noteworthy domains
        2. 7.1.2. Forecast topic framework
        3. 7.1.3. Topics with high degree of importance
        4. 7.1.4. Forecasted realization t
        5. 7.1.5. Current leading countries etc
        6. 7.1.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
        7. 7.1.7. Table of survey results
      2. 7.2. Survey Results in gEnergyh
        1. 7.2.1. Trends in noteworthy domains
        2. 7.2.2. Forecast topic framework
        3. 7.2.3. Topics with high degree of importance
        4. 7.2.4. Forecasted realization t
        5. 7.2.5. Current leading countries etc
        6. 7.2.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
        7. 7.2.7. Table of survey results
      8. Survey Results in gEnvironmenth
      1. 8.1. Trends in areas of attention
        1. 8.1.1. Introduction of design technologies for the realization of a recycling society (LCA)
        2. 8.1.2. Establishment of environmental management techniques
      2. 8.2. Forecast topic framework
      3. 8.3. Topics with high degree of importance
      4. 8.4. Forecasted realization times
      5. 8.5. Current leading countries etc
      6. 8.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
      7. 8.7. Table of survey rseults
    9. 9. Survey Results in gAgriculture, Forestry and Fisheriesh
      1. 9.1. Trends in areas of attention
        1. 9.1.1. Sustainable production activities harmonious with environment
        2. 9.1.2. Stable supply of healthy and safe food and protection of living environment
        3. 9.1.3. Utilization of biological functions and new industrial uses
        4. 9.1.4. Agriculture Biotechnology/crop production
        5. 9.1.5. Livestock farming and grasslands
        6. 9.1.6. Forests and forestry ind
        7. 9.1.7. Fisheries industry
      2. 9.2. Forecast topic framework
      3. 9.3. Topics with high degree of importance
      4. 9.4. Forecasted realization times
      5. 9.5. Current leading countries etc
      6. 9.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
      7. 9.7. Table of survey results
      10. Survey Results in gProduction and Machineryh
      1. 10.1. Trends in areas of attention
        1. 10.1.1. Introduction
        2. 10.1.2. Prediction about relationship between tools, information, energy, environment, living organisms and human beings
      2. 10.2. Forecast topic framework
      3. 10.3. Topics with high degree of importance
      4. 10.4. Forecasted realization times
      5. 10.5. Current leading countries etc
      6. 10.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
      7. 10.7. Table of survey results
    10. 11.Survey Results in gUrbanization and Constructionh
      1. 11.1. Trends in areas of attention
        1. 11.1.1. Urbanization and construction technologies at momentous turning point
        2. 11.1.2. Development of safe and secure urban spaces
        3. 11.1.3. Establishment of environmental conservation and nature rehabilitation technologies
        4. 11.1.4. Response to mature so
        5. 11.1.5. Productivity improvement, cost reduction and quality maintenance
      2. 11.2. Forecast topic framework
      3. 11.3. Topics with high degree of importance
      4. 11.4. Forecasted realization times
      5. 11.5. Current leading countries etc
      6. 11.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
      7. 11.7. Table of survey results
    11. 12. Survey Results in gCommunicationh
      1. 12.1. Trends in areas of attention
        1. 12.1.1. Digital broadcasting
        2. 12.1.2. Move towards ultrafast intelligent networks
        3. 12.1.3. Mobile communication
        4. 12.1.4. Advances in multimedia communication
      2. 12.2. Forecast topic framework
      3. 12.3. Topics with high degree of importance
      4. 12.4. Forecasted realization times
      5. 12.5. Current leading countries etc
      6. 12.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
      7. 12.7. Table of survey results
    12. 13. Survey Results in gTransportationh
      1. 13.1. Trends in areas of attention
        1. 13.1.1. Trends towards computerized and intelligent transportation systems
        2. 13.1.2. Sophistication of transportation functions (high speed, convenience and more sophisticated services)
        3. 13.1.3. Environment, energy and recycling
        4. 13.1.4. Safety and disaster prevention/preparedness
        5. 13.1.5. Transportation systems for affluent and fulfilling future society
      2. 13.2. Forecast topic framework
      3. 13.3. Topics with high degree of importance
      4. 13.4. Forecasted realization times
      5. 13.5. Current leading countries etc
      6. 13.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
      7. 13.7. Table of survey results
    13. 14. Survey Results in gHealth, Medical Care and Welfareh
      1. 14.1. Trends in areas of attention
        1. 14.1.1. Malignant neoplasms
        2. 14.1.2. Scientific lifestyle guidelines for adult disease (lifestyle disease) prevention
        3. 14.1.3. Advances in science and technology, changes in lifestyles and emerging infections
        4. 14.1.4. Gene diagnosis and therapy
        5. 14.1.5. Advances in artificial organs
        6. 14.1.6. Direction of welfare and nursing care.
        7. 14.1.7. Conclusions
      2. 14.2. Forecast topic framework.
      3. 14.3. Topics with high degree of importance.
      4. 14.4. Forecasted realization times.
      5. 14.5. Current leading countries etc.
      6. 14.6. Comparison with the 5th Survey (previous survey)
      7. 14.7. Table of survey results
    14. Reference

The paper is in Acrobat Portable Document Format (pdf).
Adobe Acrobat Reader 2.0 or later is required.

Clickfor Japanese version, or
Clickfor other versions

When quoting our data, please specify clearly that the data are quoted from "The Sixth Technology Forecast Survey" published by NISTEP