Cosponsored by the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, APEC Center for Technology Foresight and the Tsukuba EXPO'85 Memorial Foundation, the International Conference on Technology Foresight was held on March 7 (Tuesday) and 8 (Wednesday), 2000 at Toshi Center Hotel (Hirakawa-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo).
International Conference on Technology Foresight - The Approach to and the Potential for New Technology Foresight.
With growing attention directed to it since the 1990s in many countries, especially in Europe and Asia, technology foresight has been widely practiced to set up a science and technology policy and technology development program for these countries, using a variety of methods such as the Delphi approach. Under these circumstances, the international conference was held with the aim of further promoting technology foresight activities, including the utilization of result of foresight studies.
Lecturer: 20 (from 14 countries, including Japan, and two international organizations).
Concerned party: About 50 persons, including Thai NSTDA representatives, Technology Foresight Committee members and staff from the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy.
Participant: A total of 300 (March 7: about 200, March 8: about 100).
Breakdown:| March 7 | March 8 | |
| Embassy | 10 | 3 |
| Government office | 17 | 5 |
| Private firm | 106 | 57 |
| College | 24 | 4 |
| Public corporation, foundation | 26 | 18 |
| Press | 4 | 0 |
| Other | 15 | 9 |
| Total | 202 | 96 |
On March 7, after an opening address by the NISTEP chief and a brief explanation of APEC Center for Technology Foresight, a session was started under the subject "Current Technology Foresight Activities in the World," which included Britain and Germany. The following day, three sessions were held: "Multi-country Foresight Activities," which focused on activities at the international level, "Lessons Learned in Technology Foresight from Developing Country Perspectives," involving countries which are about to start foresight activities on their own, and "Integration of Socioeconomic Needs into Technology Foresight," which centered on activities conducted from a socioeconomic viewpoint. The following outlines speeches on each subject.
[Sponsor's address] Jiro Shibata, Director General, NISTEP, Japan
After expressing thanks to APEC Center for Technology Foresight and the Tsukuba EXPO'85 Memorial Foundation, who participated, gave speeches and cosponsored in the conference, the director general briefly explained the current situation of technology foresight studies in Japan and cited his expectation that this conference would contribute to accelerating renewed and further development of foresight studies.
[Introduction of APEC Center for Technology Foresight] Chatri Sripaipan, Co-Director, APEC Center for Technology Foresight
APEC Center for Technology Foresight started activities in Bangkok in February 1998, as the world's first organization to conduct technology foresight studies at a regional level. Its main activities include technology foresight surveys in the APEC areas and mass-education campaigns in countries interested in starting technology foresight studies.
Eleven countries reported their foresight studies, including Britain, the U.S., Germany and Japan. The following outlines their reports.
The second foresight survey has been under progress since last November with the aim of updating the results of the initial study, which was conducted in 1994 to 1998. The new results will be released in November. In the current study, the country plans to pool knowledge and information by utilizing the network of a large number of people.
The lecturer spoke about the study that was conducted in 1997 by Australian Science and Technology Council (ASTEC) aimed at directing at those who would utilize the results of the survey. Since ASTEC was dissolved in 1998, the Science, Engineering and Innovation Council has been engaged in foresight to prioritize technologies. He stressed the importance of political support in national-level foresight.
The speaker reported on the technological strategies of the government, the technology road map of the industrial sector, and the technology project carried out by NRC. At the government level, a study was conducted using a market-pull type technology road map. At the industry level, foresight was implemented to help establish a development strategy. The lecturer stressed the necessity of demand-pull analysis for industries and firms.
The lecturer reported on the technology foresight project currently in progress using several methods such as the Delphi technique and scenarios. This project covers health and medical care, biological resources, social infrastructures, production systems, telecommunications systems, materials and recycling systems, the service industry and education.
The reporter spoke about the project being carried out for the 1998 - 1999 term. Based on a standardized approach, foresight was conducted by scenario analysis and created 14 strategic goals. The results of analysis would be reflected in the government's investments in research and development. He introduced a database called "InnovationLink: 2010," which is accessible on line for the results of the project.
The speaker reported on the trend in the U.S., focusing on critical technology studies that had been conducted since early in the 1990s. These studies were based on interviews with professionals, including industry specialists, reviews of technology road maps of industries and so forth. He indicated the importance of addressing the innovation system as a whole rather than individual technologies and added that technology road maps of the industry and government agencies are gaining more attention.
The lecturer presented the results of foresight using Delphi I and II. He suggested that it would be essential in the future to develop a new prediction method that integrates the Delphi technique and other methods. He cited the necessity of participation by various strata of the society in foresight activities and introduced FUTUR, a prediction process designed to publicly disclose details of foresight surveys using the Internet.
In Austria, foresight studies were carried out in 1996 to 1998 to meet the needs of the country using demand-oriented, solution-oriented and application-oriented approaches. In these studies, the society and culture, as well as technology, were examined by the Delphi approach to identify social, cultural, economic and political trends of the country.
The speaker reported on the results of the second Delphi study in 15 fields, which covered 1,155 issues. In this study, the foresight period was extended from 20 years to 25 years, with just a few technologies selected by analysis.
The reporter spoke about the critical technology survey in 1995 and the technology foresight study in 1999 on agriculture, information and advanced production technology. In the technology foresight study, a wide range of information was collected via a network of professionals, a list of technology issues was produced, a survey was conducted on a questionnaire concerning the importance of these issues, and finally, critical technologies were selected.
The lecturer explained the background to and the importance of Delphi studies, in addition to the results of the first and second surveys. Regarding the major technology fields, he pointed out the close relationships between changes in the relative importance of technologies examined in the Delphi studies and changes in government spending on research and development in these technologies.
APEC Center for Technology Foresight presented the results of past projects and support network constructions, as well as Delphi studies conducted at an international level. The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies reported on foresight activities in EU. The following provides the outline of their reports.
The reporter emphasized the necessity for participants to fully understand foresight and see foresight activities not only from a domestic but also from an APEC-level point of view. He also proposed that English be used commonly to eradicate misunderstandings.
The reporter outlined the Future Project, under which policymakers participate in discussion on relationships among technology, competitiveness and employment based on dynamic trends in population and society.
The lecturer reported on "Supply Control of Water" and "Technology for Learning and Culture," which are international projects conducted by APEC Center for Technology Foresight. These studies employed the Delphi and scenario approaches.
The reporter spoke about the APEC technology foresight network aimed at expanding the current network, accelerating information exchange and reinforcing foresight support.
In this session, discussion focused on South Africa, Hungary and Thailand, which have recently embarked on foresight activities. Professionals offered advice and exchanged opinions for countries that are considering implementing technology foresight. The following is an outline of the discussions.
In South Africa, panels were set up for 12 fields to identify advantageous technologies and their strengths and weaknesses. Some key technologies were selected after scenario analysis.
The reporter explained the technology estimation program (TEP) currently in progress. Under the program, scenarios were produced and Delphi surveys conducted. The panel is compiling a report analyzing the present situations and scenarios.
The lecturer reported on foresight activities of NGOs and the Thai government. He proposed that social and environmental aspects be incorporated into foresight and cited problems with meeting the needs of residents and securing the participation of local professionals.
In the implementation of foresight activities, the participation of competent professionals will enhance the legitimacy and credibility of foresight to make it authoritative. It is essential, therefore, to secure the participation of professionals as early as in the planning process.
Japan and Britain reported on their effort to integrate socioeconomic needs into foresight. Participants discussed and exchanged opinions on the future course of technology foresight.
The reporter outlined the "Survey on National Needs and Technology Foresight" conducted by NISTEP using the need approach, and several new attempts currently being made, including the introduction of the need approach into the 7th Technology Foresight Survey, which was carried out based on the results of the survey.
In the first-generation foresight, professionals made predictions about science and technology, according to the reporter. In the second generation, the industry and university discussed science and technology in relation to the market. He indicated that we would enter the third generation, in which a wide range of interested parties in the society would endeavor to solve problems by taking social factors into account.
In the closing address, Prof. Ketudat agreed to the proposal of NISTEP's Director General Jiro Shibata that global foresight conferences be held periodically and that the International Club of Technology Foresight (ICFT) be set up to exchange information.
The following common perceptions were seen lying beneath the sessions.