Integration of Socio-economic Needs into Technology Foresight

Prof. Isao KARUBE
Director, Center for Collaborative Research, University of Tokyo
Vice-Chairperson, the Technology Forecast Steering Committee

ABSTRACT

The paper presents current Japanese technology foresight program in which a needs approach methodology is applied. The priority setting for future Japanese R&D activities is an important issue and the latest political and administrative changes are shown as a background of foresight activities. It is necessary for priority setting an analysis on future societal needs to science and technology. "Future needs for Science and Technology based on National Lifestyle in 2010S" is a study conducted by NISTEP to meet this requirement and to prepare the next foresight program. Future peoples' needs for science and technology in 2010s were examined with 12 aspects such as health care, diet, information, safety, and life style. A Technological analysis was done using more than 1000 technologies in the sixth Delphi survey reported in 1997 and the necessity to increase technological topics in some fields to meet these peoples' needs.

The current seventh technology foresight survey is carried out now. The outline of the survey are described focusing on introduction of societal needs approach and the structure of technological fields and corresponding experts panels.

1. Science and Technology in Japan

The Science and Technology Basic Law established in 1995 clearly showed that the promotion of science and technology was an important policy issue. The Science and Technology Basic Plan was established in July 1996 to indicate concrete science and technology policies for the five-year period from FY 1996 to FY 2000, and it has resulted in the firm implementation of various measures. According to this basic plan, the government was required to extend its investment to science and technology as a percentage of GDP must be at a level comparable with the main European and North American countries at the beginning of the 21st century. This calls for a doubling of investment during the period of the basic plan, so that the government's expenditure on science and technology during the five-year period is required to reach 17 trillion yen. This amount is expected to be approved if the budget presently being debated before Parliament is passed.

Governmental administrative organizations will be reorganized in 2001. The activities of the Council for Science and Technology which is responsible for national basic policy on science and technology will transferred to the Comprehensive Science and Technology Council. This will provide a framework for investigating science and technology policy issues from an overall perspective, incorporating not only the natural sciences as before, but also perspectives from the social sciences. Also, such revolutionary initiatives will be taken as combining of the Science and Technology Agency together with the Ministry of Education to produce a Ministry for Education, Science and Technology responsible for covering a wide R&D area from the basics through to application.

Under this environment, we are proceeding towards a next Science and Technology Basic Plan and are experiencing an era of changing systems and plans, where assessment and investigation of technological issues facing Japan in the future have become important issues.

This is also an era of changing conditions in society against the backdrop of science and technology activities. Japan's population, with a low fertility rate and graying society, is forecasted to peak in 2007 and then to start decreasing. The various systems which control our society were formulated during an age where population was continually increasing. The inferred premise was, in most cases, that ever increasing population was a given, and now that decreasing population is upon us, the effects on society will extend beyond merely issues associated with supply and demand imbalances in the labour force. At the same time, environmental restrictions such as global warming, are becoming increasingly urgent and these factors also will have a significant impact on society. These social and economic factors require adequate consideration when prioritizing directions for science and technology in the future.

2. Scientific and Technological Analysis that Answers Society's Needs

Recognizing the importance of a systematic analysis approach to the issues of how science and technology related to our social and economic needs, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy conducted a survey analyzing the future technology outlook presented by the various technical experts involved in the "6th Technology Forecast Survey" using the Delphi method from the perspective of society's needs.

The research has focused on two points. The first is the need to grasp what people's medium and long-term needs are. There are three things to aim for in science and technology to achieve the Basic Science And Technology Plan: (1) ways of dealing with issues regarding creation of new industries and rapid advancement of information and communication technology; (2) reaching decisions on problems affecting us on a world wide scale, such as environmental issues, food supplies, and limited energy and resources; (3) measures to meet people's needs such as improvement of people's health, overcoming and preventing diseases, and preventing disasters.

These issues cover a very wide ambit of human needs, and as Japan enters an era of societal change resulting from the demographic change, a comprehensive review spanning the medium and long-term is required.

The second point is the need to investigate methods which will show us the important technologies from a society's needs perspective. Two different approaches must be taken towards furthering research and development. One is a technological approach to assess the relative importance offered by their technological possibilities examining the medium and long-term trends in the various fields of science and technology. Another is a needs oriented approach to examine our economic and social needs in the future to ascertain research and development issues that will answer those needs. This approach focusing on our needs, requires development to supplement the technical approach offered by the Delphi survey.

There has been an awareness of this needs analysis approach even in the Sixth Delphi Survey conducted previously. The Technology Forecast Survey aimed to ascertain specialist knowledge from survey respondents, so groups of experts were established to provide answers to technological topics in different technological fields, and they were issued with questionnaires. The panel members who are responsible for the preparation of technological topics to be surveyed were required to produce a technology map based on the two axis of the technological categories forming their field, and the objectives of the technology. Positioning technological topics that are candidates for research strategically on the map enabled consideration from an overall balanced and inclusive perspective so technological topics could be established, including investigations into the importance of their impact on society and the economy. Accordingly, establishing the issues required not just consideration of technological possibilities and the relevance of technologies, but included also an investigation into socioeconomic considerations. Technologies that respond to society's existing technological needs were also explored in some cases. For example, the Technology Forecasting Committee at the 6th Technology Forecast Survey decided on four areas which could not be approached as categories of technologies standing independently, as they are issues that require a comprehensive view of various technology categories. These were "Dealing With The Aging Society" (Creating a barrier free environment, maintaining quality of life and assisting people to be independent), "Maintaining Safety" (Dealing with natural disasters and computer crime), Environmental Preservation And Recycling (Developing new energies, low energy consumption initiatives and recycling technology) and finally "Shared Fundamental Technologies (Design techniques, processing technologies, handling systems, and techniques for making observations and taking measurements). Each technology category group was instructed to include consideration of important technologies related to these four areas as they established the issues required in their categories. Each technology groups' reports were arranged to incorporate consideration of these four areas in relation to technology issues throughout their analysis.

Research on "Future Needs for Science and Technology based on National Lifestyle in 2010s" as a follow-up to the 6th Technology Forecast Survey concentrated on the outlook for our future needs by investigating important issues for society and the economy, social makeup, systems and technology. A special focus of the conference was the method of contrasting the results of the Technology Forecast Survey regarding technological matters. Basically that involves the following.

a. Preconditions

The period for forecasts extends until the end of the 2nd decade of the 21st century, about 20 years. Factors of change requiring consideration for a long term forecast include (a) the changing makeup of the population as the percentage of elderly people increases and the overall population decreases and (b) measures to prevent global warming decided at the 1997 Kyoto Conference On Global Warming (COP3). Other factors were to be considered as though present trends would continue, however no parameters were set regarding economic growth rates.

b. The Perspective on Human Needs

A reference to government white papers indicates that factors which impact deeply on human lifestyles, housing, and diet, things which comprise "Citizens Lifestyles", can be broken down into 12 categories.

Factors related to the background nature of society: 1) Household economics, 2) daily living, 3) education, 4) planning for society considering old and young, men and women, and 5) social insurance, as well as factors related to citizens' lifestyle needs and science and technology: 6) maintaining health and medical treatments, 7) diet, 8) housing, 9) household waste disposal, 10) information, 11) safety and 12) society's lifestyle related capital.

c. Method of Analysis

The issues that will be relevant over the medium and long term were extracted, after ascertaining past trends based on data collected in the above 12 categories, making comparisons with overseas countries, ascertaining public opinion by reference to public opinion research surveys, and considering these factors in relation to the developments of the graying society and environmental restrictions.
Submissions and arguments from all layers in society and existing policies regarding issues relevant over the medium and long term were considered and the directions required for economics, systemization and technology sorted out. When doing this, the point of view of ordinary citizens, as users, was given maximum consideration.
Technological forecasting problems in various areas of technology as they relate to the issues in 7)-12) above were isolated, and analyzed in the light of such questions as, "How many technological topics are listed?", "How do the experts assess the degree of importance of these?", "When are the related topics likely to be implemented?" and "What is necessary to realize the required technology?"

The analysis into health needs is illustrated below to serve as examples of the results of analysis undertaken.

Basic recognition and medium and long-term issues relating to maintaining health and medical treatment.

a. Basic recognition and medium and long-term issues

A large number of patients suffer from degenerative diseases which require a substantial proportion of overall medical expenditures so that degenerative diseases have become a major topic regarding national health and medical treatment. The largest category of degenerative diseases are diseases affecting the circulatory system, which affect 1.45 million people, 16.4% of the total number of people receiving treatment and consuming 5.1 trillion yen, 20.9%, making it the single most expensive part of medical expenditure. The essential factor in dealing with degenerative diseases is prevention, so the tools and systems must be in place to assist preventative measures in people's lifestyles and their individual physical condition.

A high percentage of medical treatment is applied to the elderly. While the elderly, people 65 and over, comprise 15% of the total population, they represent one-quarter of the number of patients and people receiving medical treatment. The simple fact alone that the proportion of society comprised of elderly people is increasing, means that the medical insurance sector will come under pressure. Conditions and diseases most prevalent among the elderly are conditions affecting the circulatory system (affecting 69% of patients), conditions affecting muscles and bones (affecting 59%), and conditions affecting the eyes (55%). In 1993, 2 million elderly people were bedridden or affected by dementia. This number is expected to almost double by 2010 to 3.9 million people. To prevent elderly people becoming bedridden, it is important to reform those facets of their life styles which are inducing the condition and to take adequate safety measures to prevent accidents which result in broken bones.

The number of patients suffering from psychological conditions is 480,000. The trend is for this number to increase as life within modern society becomes more complex. The number of people hospitalized for psychiatric conditions has now reached 330,000, almost the same number as those affected by conditions affecting the circulatory system. One characteristic of people suffering from psychiatric conditions is the long length of their hospitalization period, which exceeds 300 days. Almost 50% of people feel stress in their daily lives, but in addition to medical treatment, it is important that the knowledge to reduce excessive stress is diffused throughout society.

The absolute number of people affected by infectious diseases such as AIDS and tuberculosis is not large, however these conditions could become a big threat. There are a large number of people who suffer from allergic conditions such as hay fever and atopic dermatitis. Hay fever for example affects 26% of people living in Akiruno City in Tokyo and 21% of people living in Chofu City. While these are not immediately life-threatening conditions, they do have a substantial affect on people by reducing their quality of life.

Across the board, people rate the importance of medical treatment and health very highly. Every day however more than 200,000 people are required to "wait more than 3 hours" at a hospital to see a doctor and many of them feel dissatisfied with their doctors' explanations regarding their medical condition and the medicines administered to them. In addition to better communication, what is needed to raise patients' satisfaction, is improved efficiency in the medical system through electronic charts shared by medical institutions, to prevent patients being examined more than once for the same thing, and the promotion of at home medical treatments based on information technology.

There needs to be a stronger recognition in the future of the economic limitations, the limitations on expensive medical treatments being imposed on medical technology, as we reach the limits of the medical insurance system. There are also restrictions imposed by society on the direction of certain medical developments, such as ethical considerations which apply in areas of organ transplants and genetic treatments, necessitating the emergence of a degree of consensus within society as a whole before further progress can be made.

b. Assessments Related to Technology Foresight

Areas which have a high degree of importance for technological forecast surveys are "Prevention and treatment of degenerative diseases", "Conditions affecting the elderly", and "Infectious diseases and allergies" while "Raising the degree of patients' satisfaction" and "Psychological and emotional conditions" are of a relatively low importance. Effective measures in these areas are not forecast to be realized, for the most part, until beyond 2010. There is an extremely high need for the government to implement measures to "Foster human resources" and "Government funding" is required for part of cancer related treatments. "Ethical considerations and effects on society" could be raised as an area of concern, which is a good illustration of one of the characteristics of forecasting in the field of medical treatment.

Among the degenerative diseases, the greatest number of forecasting issues concern " cancer, " an extremely important condition. Nonetheless, there will probably be advances in cancer prevention and treatment. Apart from cancer, there are basically no fixed forecasting issues regarding prevention and treatment of other degenerative diseases, only the issue of genetic treatment for diabetes. There is no major issue regarding prevention either.

Many forecast issues regarding conditions affecting the elderly, concern Alzheimer's induced dementia. This is an extremely important area however the degree of difficulty associated with it is reflected by the lateness of the period in which effective measures are forecast to be realized, 2016. Research in this area needs to be speeded up. A certain degree of understanding regarding forecasting issues about aging has been achieved, however this is yet to materialize in health management.

As an example of measures to deal with mental and emotional problems, implementation of preventative measures against stress induced psychological problems will occur from 2011, scoring a relatively low 60 in the degree of importance scale. Development of medical treatments to combat schizophrenia will be late in coming, in the year 2018.

The development of an HIV vaccine and AIDS treatment is extremely important but a vaccine is not forecast to be realized before 2007 and effective treatments until 2009, both relatively fast time frames. Hay fever and allergies are also important conditions however effective solutions are forecast to occur slowly and it is necessary to speed up research into alleviating the difficulties caused to the quality of life of sufferers.

An ID card system incorporating information about health and medical treatment will be implemented from 2006. Forecast issues such as a virtual travel system for use by bedridden people, medical checkups conducted at people's homes, noninvasive surgery and pain control etc. although assessed overall as being of relatively low importance are likely to be implemented quite soon. There are few issues regarding raising the level of satisfaction and trust felt by ordinary consumers of these medical treatments. (Cf. fig.1)

**Fig. 1 Importance in the sixth Delphi Survey**
	Importance in the sixth Delphi Survey
	Low	Middle	High
Issues related to demographic change	Advisory system to lifestyle	Medical care of aged	Cancer Geriatric diseases
Issues related to the environmental restriction
Others	Mental health Social consensus (cost, ethics)	Improvement of patients' contentment Infectious disease Allergy	Gene diagnosis, artificial organ, etc.

Note:: "High" means both the degree of importance and number of problems is above average.; "Medium" means either the degree of importance or number of problems is above average.; "Low" means both the degree of importance and the number of problems is below average or there are no technology foresight issues (underlined).; Average: for the degree of importance, 62.1 is the average from the total number, 1,072, of technology foresight issues.

The effects of technological advancements must be assessed from medical, social and economic perspectives. New developments in medical technology will have trouble being widely accepted if they incur high costs or present ethical problems.

7 areas of people's lifestyle needs have been raised as areas which are highly related to science and technology as shown by the research. The technology foresight fields applying to the 326 technology issues extracted which cover those 7 areas are represented in Fig. 2. 14 areas of technology foresight have been broken down into 4 groups as follows:

Relation between Peoples' Needs and Technologucal Topics of Delphi

Overall, technology fields for extracted technology foresight issues and areas of people's lifestyle needs cover everything appropriately. Infrastructure /common technology applies to each of the 7 needs areas and life related areas are concentrated in the fields of improving health and medical treatment and dietary needs. Environment related areas are not involved with the fields of improving health and medical treatment but dietary habits were chosen as issues related to health and the environment. It could be said that information related areas play an important role in all fields, but this is extremely small in the areas of improving health and medical treatment, diet, housing and waste disposal.

Naturally, most technology issues and technological approaches are set for areas where needs are the strongest, but there are cases of important needs which did not necessarily have a high number of technology issues. In most cases, new technologies are not required to deal with such needs or the deciding factor is not technology but whether systems are prepared, and there are actual examples where problems do not get solved unless each individual's life style is not changed. In terms of the ways of extracting the issues discussed previously, these could be cited as cases where it is very difficult to construct the issues.

Technology forecast surveys being an exercise in long term forecasting of science and technology, actively identifying these kinds of needs, and when necessary, establishing different categories to previously identified "Technology issues", is an important and significant requirement.

3. Plan For the 7th Technology Foresight Survey

The 7th Technology Foresight Survey is hosted by Institute of Science and Technology Policy and investigations are proceeding at this stage. The new points designed for the survey decided by the Steering Committee are as follows.

Points for the 7th Survey

Explicit introduction of "needs approach"
When setting technological topics and analyzing the results, include viewpoints from experts from disciplines other than the physical sciences.
Setting up of service sectoral panels
In addition to reconsidering the structure of fields as previously decided, include a variety of service and business models without restricting the things surveyed within a strict definition of the meaning of technology. In concrete terms this means combining developments towards information and the growth of service sectors within the economy to establish new independent categories in the fields of distribution, management, business and services.
Survey parameters corresponding to the characteristics of each field group
Establish "Major group" which cover fields that are related or of a similar type. By establishing survey items which suit the characteristics peculiar to the major category apart from those survey items which are common to all fields, questions can be designed which ascertain the characteristics of the major category and maintain some degree of coordination within it.
Rink between needs and technology
Itemize needs as required from society and the economy, and assess the degree of importance attaching to those needs items. Assessment of the degree to which technology topics from each field apply to those needs and how they can contribute to them is also required.
Introduction of non-technological topics(institutional issues, lifestyle etc.)
Issues aside from the technological need to be established as necessary, in fields in which elements other than technological elements have a substantial impact. For example, in the field of the environment, items regarding systems, such as the introduction of an environmental tax could be added for investigation.

Fields covered, major categories and Survey systems

Based on the thinking outlined above, 6 major groups of technology, encompassing 14 fields, and a major category for socioeconomic needs, encompassing 3 fields, are established to provide the fields that make up the subject of the survey.

Technology

Information group:: 1) information and communication, 2) electronics.
Bio group:: 3) life sciences, 4) health and medical care.
Environment group:: 5) agriculture, forestry , fisheries, and food, 6) resources, energy and environment, 7) marine science, earth science and space.
Material group:: 8) materials and processing.
Industry group:: 9) production, 10) distribution, 11) management.
Infrastructure group:: 12) urbanization and construction, 13) transportation, 14) service.

Social and economic needs

needs group:: 15) socio-economic system, 16) aging society, 17) safety and security.

The system for administering the survey will be comprised of Steering Committee, to take overall responsibility and technology category groups to cover each area.

Members of the Steering Committee will be drawn from the survey managers from the technology category groups. The Steering Committee oversees the investigation overall, deciding survey policies, and pulling together the final results. The technological panels prepare the background for investigation and their fields, establish survey topics, select survey respondents, analyze survey results and prepare reports. When establishing survey topics, those issues presented from category groups in the socio-economic needs area must be investigated before commencing the survey in the field. All the survey topics will be evaluated with the degree of possible application to each need item on the list prepared by needs panels.

Needs category groups are required to ascertain issues which must be solved by technology in the future and present their findings on the needs items isolated to the technology groups in the technology area. If possible, they also make suggestions on the survey topics themselves at this time and survey plans, results analysis and production of reports is also investigated with the aim of understanding the degree of importance of the various needs items isolated.

Needs Approach Panels / Technologican Panrls

4. Conclusion

As explained, the new approaches will be introduced in the 7th Technology Foresight Survey and at present those details are being investigated by the Steering Committee and the panels. In conclusion, as we welcome in the 21st century and interest becomes increasingly concentrated on forecasting the future, we intend to make announcements early in the first year of the new century. There will be substantial changes to the government's systems for administering science and technology from 2001 requiring that the Steering Committee investigate acquiring practical information from now on.

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