The establishment of the APEC Technology Foresight Center in Thailand and the subsequent foresight studies, both at the APEC and the national levels, have created new and excellent opportunities for learning and objective cross-cultural interaction among and within the various economies and societies.
The traditional perception of Technology Foresight as a tool mainly for ensuring mainly industrial competitiveness has expanded to include the social dimension and sustainable global development. The definition of Technology Foresight, advocated by the APEC Technology Foresight Center, that explicitly includes the additional social and environmental dimensions are much welcome in developing countries, as expressed by members of the Asian Alliance of Appropriate Technology Practitioners - an Asian NGO network operating in several Asia-Pacific economies.
Recent economic crisis in Asia, especially in Thailand, has confirmed the belief that the regional and global economic systems, especially in relation to financial and credit, and the transnational trading/ economic system have as much, if not more, impact on technology development as the national economic system. In this aspect, foreign direct investment was identified as one of the key driving forces while the strong social fabrics of the Thai society was found to be a key factor in cushioning the negative impacts resulting from the crisis. The emerging trade and technology development issues, especially relating to genetically modified organisms, helped to strengthen the case for more effective technology foresight studies and wide public consultations.
Technology foresight, as a general principle and in the broadest sense, is not so new to developing member economies of APEC, considering the fact that many do have both short- and long-term technology development plans. As rightly pointed out by Professor Greg Tegart, the first Director of our APEC Technology Foresight (Tegart, 1998), that there are a number of activities, such as extrapolation, critical technologies or expert panel discussion, consultation, scenario writing, patent analysis and, finally, the increasingly popular Delphi Surveys, that can be gathered up under the term Foresight. It is, however, the systematic and structured nature of the Technology Foresight that holds key to its effectiveness and, in combination with some other related factors, its success. Such systematic Technology Foresight has long been applied in several developed countries. Japan, USA and Germany are well known for their experience and success with such technology foresight. As such, it is not surprising for Technology Foresight to be generally perceived as a major tool for identifying opportunities in technologies and markets, thus maintaining or advancing industrial competitiveness.
Thailand is one of the many developing countries that have recently adopted the foresight technique, including the use of Delphi Surveys, in its research and development planning.
The establishment of the APEC Technology Foresight Center was seen as a new initiative designed to promote the adoption of technology foresight across the APEC region as well as to facilitate and motivate multi-economy technology foresight studies. It is felt appropriate to share a few thoughts, partly as a constructive feedback about the Center and partly to share some lessons learned relating to technology foresight from the perspectives of developing countries.
The establishment of the APEC Technology Foresight Center and the subsequent foresight studies, both at the APEC and the national levels, have created new and excellent opportunities for learning and objective cross-cultural interaction among and within the various economies and societies. The decision to establish the Center in a developing economy such as Thailand has been an important factor in creating better awareness and understanding of the greater, if not full, potential of technology foresight as an effective development tool. Furthermore, the traditional perception of Technology Foresight as a tool mainly for ensuring national industrial competitiveness has also expanded to include the social dimension and sustainable global development. The definition of Technology Foresight, advocated by the APEC Technology Foresight Center, that explicitly includes the additional social and environmental dimensions are, therefore, much welcome in developing countries. Such perception was expressed by members of the Asian Alliance of Appropriate Technology Practitioners (APPROTECH ASIA) -an Asian NGO network operating in several Asia-Pacific economies aimed at empowerment of people through the promotion of appropriate technology. Nevertheless, experience has indicated that awareness and understanding of issues are only part of the requirements for changes. Positive behavioral changes can only take place if appreciation and commitment for changes effectively follow awareness and understanding.
Studies of results of the initial survey of opinions on possible topics for the Center revealed that environmental protection, clean/green energy and communications, followed by water supply and others, were similarly highly rated by all three categories of respondents, namely, APEC member economies, non-APEC member economies and Thailand. Trade - related technologies were given only moderate rating by the APEC group and Thailand and low rating by the non-APEC group. Technology foresight exercise, through social preparation and a series of consultations, by APPROTECH ASIA identified sustainable agriculture/food supply chain and water supply as priority issues, followed by environmental protection, communications and clean/green energy. At the national level, the technology foresight study in the agriculture sector in Thailand revealed that of the 20 priority topics identified for economic development, only 7 were identified for quality of life.
It would be useful, at this point, to briefly mention about APPROTECH ASIA. APPROTECH ASIA stands for Asian Alliance of Appropriate Technology Practitioners -an Asian technology-oriented NGO network, operating in several Asia-Pacific economies and being registered as a technology resource group with the UN/ESCAP. Currently, APPROTECH ASIA is the S.E.Asia Secretariat for the World Water Supply and Sanitation Collaborative Council within the framework of the Global Water Partnership Programme.
With respect to technology foresight, NGO community worldwide, including APPROTECH ASIA, has benefited from Germany's technology foresight expertise through a series of GTZ- and TOOL-supported training at various levels, i.e. international, regional, sub-regional and national. Benefit gained extended beyond capacity building in technology assessment and decision-making for appropriate technology options/choices to include, more importantly, consensus building among greatly diversified advocacy groups. Key driving forces identified included sharing of common concern and vision and putting people first in deriving at joint action. As such, visioning exercise and consultation through active participation, preceded by appropriate social preparation of participants, have become preferred techniques in the NGO community.
Studies of results of the initial survey of opinions on possible topics for the Center revealed that environmental protection, clean/green energy and communications, followed by water supply and others, were similarly highly rated by all three categories of respondents, namely, APEC member economies, non-APEC member economies and Thailand. Trade - related technologies were given only moderate rating by the APEC group and Thailand and low rating by the non-APEC group. Technology foresight exercise, through social preparation and a series of consultations, by APPROTECH ASIA identified sustainable agriculture/food supply chain and water supply as priority issues, followed by environmental protection, communications and clean/green energy. This implies that common concern and vision could be achieved if "social preparation" of participants are undertaken. On the other hand, the technology-oriented foresight study, at the national level, in the agriculture sector in Thailand revealed that of the 20 priority topics identified for economic development, only 7 were identified for quality of life.
Recent economic crisis in Asia, especially in Thailand, has confirmed the belief that the regional and global economic systems, especially in relation to financial and credit, and the transnational trading/ economic system have as much, if not more, impact on technology development as the national economic system. In this aspect, foreign direct investment was identified as one of the key driving forces while the strong social fabrics of the Thai society was found to be a key factor in cushioning the negative impacts resulting from the crisis. Unfortunately, the topic of lifestyle and culture, which is of increasing interest in the present multicultural/cross-cultural economy, was not given high priority by members for inclusion in the Center's scope of study. It is also of interest to note that the emerging trade and development issue relating to genetically modified organisms has also helped to strengthen the case for more effective technology foresight studies and consultations.
It is undeniable that the most common constraint encountered in undertaking technology foresight that has been identified by both developing as well as developed countries is, not unexpectedly, financial in nature. Consequently, emerging industrializing economies, including especially Thailand, have been subjected to rapid flow of technology, often by default than by design, through foreign direct investment. In developing countries, technology foresight research has yet to play the role in influencing decision relating to transnational investment in the economy.
In addition, unsystematic socio-political decisions in countries with less political stability have also added additional unexpected uncertainties to the potential application of systematic technology foresight research results.
Based on these experiences, it appears to be desirable to give serious consideration to the need for inclusion of local/indigenous "experts" in future technology foresight studies and exercises, especially at the national level. In addition, the process of consultations, both at the national and the regional levels, in support of and supplementary to the Delphi technique should also be expanded both in the horizontal (multi-country and multi-sector) and vertical (top-down and bottom-up) directions.