THE FUTURES PROJECT

Abstract

  The 'Futures' project, organised by the Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies was launched in mid-1998 to explore the effects of technological, economic, political and social drivers on society.

  Nearly 200 experts brought together by IPTS, one of the eight institutes of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, identified the issues that will have a major impact on the way we work and live in Europe during the next ten years. The presentation of the Futures project focused on the development of the project and highlighted some results.

Introduction

  The technological, economic and political landscape of Europe is undergoing profound and dramatic changes. Information and Communication Technologies are developing at a ferocious pace. Together with breakthroughs in Life Sciences, these technologies are transforming the way we live and the way we work, while the single currency, the enlargement of the EU, demographic changes, sustainability concerns and the wider context of globalisation are transforming our economy. Each of these "trend breaks" is in itself a challenge. The fact that they will occur simultaneously over the next ten years, and strongly interact with each other, is even more challenging for most policy areas and in particular policies relating to technology, competitiveness and employment.

  Launched in 1998, the IPTS Futures Project aimed at examining the individual and combined effects of these technological, economic, political and social drivers at horizon 2010.

  To address these issues in depth and with a cross-sector perspective, the process of the Project brought together nearly 200 experts and policy makers, drawn from industry, academia and government to take part in a series of brainstorming sessions, seminars and workshops

The process and the Timetable

  In 1999 four panels of experts (that started working already in 1998), were able to produce panel reports on the following issues: Demographic and Social Trends; Information Communication Technologies and the Information Society; Life sciences and the Frontiers of Life; Natural Resources and the Environment. The results of the work of the panels were presented and extensively discussed at a seminar that took place in Brussels mid 1999 where more than 80 experts took part.

  In the second half of 1999, the project investigated the impact of the "trend breaks" on European technology, employment, competitiveness, and the challenges and opportunities of three cross-cutting issues which will play a role on the way Europe will look like in 2010. Enlargement that will be underway and will undoubtedly extend the scale of European Union and strengthen its economic and social ties with the surrounding countries, to form the key economic pole of the world economy. Knowledge and Learning, will contribute determining Europe's future global position and its prosperity. Prosperity depends on continuous learning - a large part of economic growth is due to new and better knowledge. EU-wide excellence in knowledge and learning requires concerted policy efforts focusing on three different, interrelated levels: the person level, the firm level and the 'system' or community level. The third issue was The Societal bill that focussed on the next ten years European public finance, which is going to confront a number of major choices. In the time horizon considered, developments can reasonably be expected to affect the financing of pensions systems, social protection, health care systems, education and necessary investments for an environmentally sustainable society.

  The work consisted of a detailed analysis of these issues and of the related policy options. For each topic a report was produced. The drafts of these reports were presented and discussed in workshops, where experts on the subjects were invited to comment on the reports.

Technology Map

  The Technology Map is a European level analysis of six technology sectors, Information and Communication Technologies, Life Sciences, Energy, Environmental and Clean Production Technologies, Materials and Related Technologies and Transport Technologies. The analysis examines a selection of technologies in each sector and focuses on the timetable for commercialisation, the strength or weakness of Europe and the relative importance of the technologies for economic and social development. Europe has areas of clear leadership that will create opportunities for the future given the trends identified in the Futures Project. There are also some critical gaps that demand attention in order to protect Europe's position in the technological vanguard.

Employment Map

  Four key themes for the coming years are analysed in the Employment map. First, the European workforce will age significantly and start to shrink. Second, fast technological change especially in Information and Communication Technologies will create hard to match demands for technology related skills. Third, the transition to a "Mosaic Society" will increase demands for personal services. Many jobs will be created but what kinds of jobs? Fourth, Europe faces a potential knowledge paradox, in which new patterns of flexibility in work contract may lead to under investment human resources. The result could put a brake on Europe's competitiveness and growth in the emerging knowledge economy.

Competitiveness Map

  The competitiveness map analyses the main challenges and opportunities for Europe's economy on the time horizon 2010 in order to indicate areas that will require the attention of European policy in the next years. In the first part, emerging areas of growth of the European economy are identified, taking into account consumption trends and production strengths and potentials. The second part concentrates on the geographic distribution of economic activities, both within Europe and globally. In this respect, the accession of new Member States represents a particularly important driver of change. The third part looks at the organisational challenges at firm and market level in responding to a globalised, and increasingly digitised, economy.

Knowledge and Learning

  Continuous learning is vital to sustaining prosperity - a large part of economic growth is due to new and better knowledge. EU-wide excellence in knowledge and learning requires concerted policy efforts focusing on three different, interrelated levels. For individuals, the main issues are education-and-training-system reform to raise literacy levels, mitigate skill-shortages and foster true lifelong learning. For organisations, the challenges are to better exploit the productivity and efficiency gains of external networking and internal knowledge management. For a Learning Europe the diversity of knowledge and learning traditions of citizens, organisations, regions and nations must be preserved, deepened, but also harnessed for the greater and shared prosperity of all Europeans. This must reflect in both specific learning-policy actions and a policy learning process itself.

Enlargement

  Enlargement is one of the most ambitious plans on the European Agenda for the next ten years and it will have a direct impact on all three of the main policy areas of the IPTS Futures Project - technology, employment and competitiveness. The potential gains for Europe as a whole are substantial, but it is a long-term project. In the coming years many of the candidate countries will be in transition from agriculture and relatively low-value industry to more technology intensive and service based "knowledge economies". This will require building on strengths such as a highly educated workforce and relatively low labour costs. Targeted training of skilled people will be essential to overcome structural mismatches and to reduce current unemployment. The success of the transition will however depend on the continuing ability to attract investment from foreign sources and to build up the domestic capacity to invest, through restructuring of the financial and institutional systems.

Financing the societal bill

  Several waves of new demand seem to be hitting Europe's societal systems at once. The ageing of European Society will raise pension demands. The long-term rise in health expenditure will be accelerated by ageing and by demands for new medical treatments. Fast technological change and the knowledge economy will promote increased demand for investments in education and training. Europeans increasingly want a cleaner environment and the financial implications of dealing with global climate issues need to be addressed. Assessing and then implementing strategies to tackle these challenges will be a key issue for the next ten years.

  The contents of the reports was presented at the IPTS Futures Conference that took place in February 2000 and gathered about 600 Policy maker s and experts.

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