A Brief Introduction of National Technology Foresight in China

Cheng Jiayu Zhou Yongchun
(National Research Center for Science and Technology for Development, P. R. China)

Abstract:

This paper introduces some research works of National Technology Foresight (NTF) in China, including the definition of NTF, organization, research scheme and the methodology. The criteria of selecting the experts and the principle of preparing the candidate technologies are discussed respectively. The indicator system in the Selection of National Critical Technology is also presented.

In China, National Technology Foresight and the Selection of National Critical Technology began in 1992. Two research projects which done in the past few years should be mentioned. The research project "Selection of National Critical Technologies", which completed in 1995, defined what was the national critical technology, and established the research approaches and the criteria of selecting national critical technologies. The project selected 24 critical technologies and 124 critical technology topics out of four technological areas (information, biology, manufacturing and materials). It provided the reference in national Ninth Five-year Science and Technology Planning. In 1999, we carried out another technology foresight project in agriculture, information and advanced manufacturing areas, and finished the report "Technology Foresight of Priority Industries in China".

Based on above works, we have put forward the conception of National Technology Foresight. In the fellow, we will discuss the definition of NTF, the research organization, scheme, research approaches, and the selection of national critical technology.

1. What is National Technology Foresight

National Technology Foresight is a kind of evaluating foresight by experts for the nation to identify the critical technologies, which are very important to reach the national aims during the next few years. It will contribute to the national economical growth, science and technology development, social progress and the national defense. The foresight results will:

provide important support for the decision making in national S & T planning and economical development planning, particularly by center Government but also by industry and local government.
direct R & D activities in the institutes and universities,
offer the reference for the enterprises to select the technologies,
stimulate new and continuing dialogue between the science base and industry, and forges tie between the institutes, universities and enterprises.

2. Research Organization and Research Scheme

2.1 Research organization

The research organization is composed of three groups in our foresight project: Steering Group, Overall Research Group and Field Groups. The arrows shown in Fig.1 draw their relationships.

Steering group: Being composed of the officials, who are responsible for S&T Planning, from the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST). Its duty is to guide the research activities from the needs of national development.

Overall Research Group: Being composed of the researchers led by our institute, National Research Center for Science and Technology for Development (NRCSTD). It is responsible for organizing, executing and coordinating the research activities. Its duties:

Formulating the research aims and overall framework,
Determining the research scheme and research method,
Setting up the evaluating criterions and the indicator system,
Guiding the research works of each filed group,
Being responsible for data processing and analyzing,
Building up the national technology database and composing the final report.

Field groups: Being composed of the researchers in relevant areas. There were three Field-groups in the foresight project: Information, Advanced Manufacturing and Agriculture. Their duties:

Preparing the candidate technologies;
Designing the questionnaires and making the investigation;
Being responsible for data processing and analyzing in relevant field;
Building up the technology database and composing the report in relevant field.

2.2 Research Scheme

3. Research approaches

The expert evaluating method is chiefly used in NTF. Three key steps need to be discussed in details.

3.1 Expert's network

The first key is how to choose the experts, whose opinions strongly influence the final results. Their views will be canvassed through: questionnaires, conferences and other events; interviews; written submissions; and a series of interactions with relevant overseas bodies. As a consulter, he (or she) must:

be able to consider questions with strategic eyes, especially from the national profit.
be an authority engaged in the concerned research area at least 10 years.

The composition of the expert group should be reasonable. They may come from R&D institutes, universities, enterprises and government offices. In our foresight project, more then 1200 experts, 80% from R&D institutes and universities, had been asked to answer the questionnaires by postal basis and regional workshops. In Advanced Manufacturing, a few of relevant overseas bodies participated in the investigations.

3.2 The principle of preparing the candidate technologies

The second key is to prepare the candidate technologies, which dominate the whole foresight procedures. The principles of preparing the candidate technologies were set up by studying their present situation and relevant science trend, as well as by identifying the future market. There are three roles in it.

The technology should be advanced. It is urgent necessary to industry development, and useful to solve the complicated problems in economic and social development. It may be widely used in the future market.
The technology should be an innovation technology, which may probably construct a new growing industry.
The technology is likely to become available before 2010. It may provide a significant contribution to the technological progress, environment protection and the promotion of people's life. The economic and social benefits may be derived from a new market or technology opportunity.

3.3 The integrated criteria of evaluating the priority technologies

The third key is to apply an integrated criterion to evaluate the priority technologies. In our research works, a program was designed to process the questionnaires. We used some statistical methods to rank the technologies, in which an integrated criteria with six priority indicators was considered as fellows:

Importance
Efficiency after use
Restriction factors
Comparison with international level
The way to reach the achievement
Times required for the technology to master

4. Selection of National Critical Technologies

The general considerations in selection of national critical technologies:

Requirement. The selected technologies may meet the needs of foundation industry and mainstay industry development, and may improve the development of newly high-tech industries.
Abilities. Considering our funding availability and the skill deficiencies, we should know what we can do and what we will succeed. It is reasonable to explore and develop the technologies to our advantage first.
Efficiency. For getting a higher return, the technologies widely utilized should be prior to all others. While considering the current efficiency, we should always put the national longer-term benefit on the top.
Science. The selected technologies must obey the principle of science and technology. It should fellow the direction in the world and innovates continuously.

According to above roles, we set up the indicator system of selecting national critical technologies shown in table 1.

**Table 1 the indicator system in selection of national critical technologies**
Economical development	Market need Economical efficiency Industrycompetitiveness	The selected technologies should:be used in the future market or create new market.increase the additional values after their use and enhance the economical efficiency. (1)improve the product quality, (2)reduce the cost, (3)either create the new functions or improve the old ones, thus elevating the industry competitiveness.
Technological progress	Importance In common use Promotion	The breakthrough, innovation & usage of the technologies should:be important to elevate the industry technology skills and assembly level.be used in many industries. It may promote other industry development.promote other technology development or become a new industry.
Social progress	Environment Protection Natural resources and energy use Quality of life	The selected technology should: protect the environment pollutions.use the natural resource efficiency and reduce the energy consumption.improve the people's health, nourishment and education.
Feasibilities	Funding availability Times required for technology to master	The funding availability should undertake the cost from R&D to the products.The selected technology should be used in the next 10 to 15 years.

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