The 2nd Technology Forecast Survey by Delphi Approach in Korea

Abstract

  In view of social and economic surroundings, "the 2nd Survey of the Technology Forecast & New Technology in Korea" bears significant importance in that it reviews the expected development course of S&T ? the core component of the high-tech society in the 21st century ? over the next 25 years, and aims to help formulate national S&T policy and strategic R&D plans. The duration for assessing 15 technological fields was set for long-term observation of 25 years in 2000-2025.

  The level of significant for the 15 S&T areas, the top 100 subjects in significance, and the relationship between significance index and R&D level in all 15 areas were surveyed. The result of comparison of Korea's R&D level is 47.1% that of advanced countries. The range of predicted time periods for realization of new technology in Korea and advanced countries is about a five- year gap between Korea and advanced countries.

1. Introduction

  The new millennium we have just entered is a critical and historically important era in which we should develop Korea as an advanced welfare democracy based on the nation's amazing economic achievements of the 20th century. With the information revolution forming the backbone in creating a knowledge-based society, science and technology (S&T) has grown as a new element of national power to secure national competitiveness, strengthen national security and improve national prestige toward the world. In addition, the role of S&T will certainly improve the quality of human existence and create new sources to expand its cultural diversities.

  In these social and economic surroundings, "the 2nd Survey of the Technology Forecast & New Technology in Korea" bears significant importance in that it reviews the expected development course of S&T ? the core component of the high-tech society in the 21st century ? over the next 25 years, and aims to help formulate national S&T policy and strategic R&D plans. The purpose of the survey, which was first conducted in 1994, is to forecast the future development course and provide basic data essential for charting out policy goals and establishing S&T policies by comparing Korea's current S&T profile with that of other advanced countries.

  Based on the outcome of the survey, national S&T policymakers will be able to effectively distribute the nation's resources in national portfolios and set up specific measures to implement national R&D projects. In accordance with the national plan proposed, the private sector could also set up strategies to secure essential technologies over the short-mid and long-term period, respectively, which will lead to continuous technological improvements. The outcome of this study can mark the beginning of an innovative cycle for the National Innovation System(NIS) in the dawning knowledge- driven society.

2. Survey Process

  This survey was carried out by the Technology Forecast Committee under the initiative of STEPI and divided into 16 subcommittees specializing in a specific technology field. Based on the results of the two rounds of research efforts, members of the subcommittees formed a theoretical analysis framework and charted out each field's future technological prospects. In addition, the atomic energy field was merged with the energy field, bringing the total number of subcommittee to 15.

3. Content of Survey

1) Areas for future assessment

  Within the entire S&T field, 15 areas have been designated for assessing their future development course.

1. Electronics & Information
2. Telecommunications
3. Machine, Production & Processing
4. Transportation
5. Aircraft, Astronomy & Space
6. Environment
7. Earth Science & Marine Science
8. Energy, Resources & Atomic energy
9. Urbanization, Construction & Civil Engineering
10. Materials
11. Chemicals
12. Life Sciences
13. Agriculture & Fisheries
14. Health & Medical Care
15. Ultra Technology

2) Time frame

  The duration for assessing each technological field was set for long-term Observation of 25 years in 2000-2025, corresponding with that of Japan, Germany and other advanced countries. This will allow for a comparison of the assessment results.

3) Survey Methods: Delphi technique

  The Delphi technique is one way to predict technological development, reflecting the intuition of experts regarding the anticipated time of technological completion and the significance of future technology. Both developing and advanced countries use this method for predicting future technological development. This method combines the expert opinions of a large number of scientists and reveals the initial results of the survey, giving experts an opportunity to adjust their earlier predictions. The method also ensures anonymity, enabling scientists to express their opinions freely, and allows for everyone to use other' input in shaping his own assessments. The 2nd S&T Forecast Survey was carried out by the Mini-Delphi technique with only two rounds of questions.

4) Selection of Subjects for Forecast

  Each subcommittee of the S&T Forecast Committee drew up a list of prospective subjects for forecast and made its final selection of 1131 subjects based on the following criteria.

• Technology in its formative or initial stages expected to lead the S&T in the future throughout the world.
• Technology relevant to issues unique to Korea's domestic situation
• Not including technology already developed a prototype or nearing development completion (exceptions include cases in which the level of technology is very low or non-existent in Korea)
• Possessing a balance between technology that requires short-, mid- and long term development
• Avoiding concentration in a single field

  In addition to the 1,131 subjects selected, 24 subjects proposed by experts during the first round of the survey had been added to the agenda for the second round, bringing the total member of subjects to 1,155.

4. Characteristics of the Second S&T Forecast Survey

  The first notable characteristic of the second S&T Forecast Survey is that compared to the one in 1994, which was based on a 20-year forecast, this survey was given 25 years so that the results could be compared to those of other countries also on a 25-year schedule such as Japan, Germany and France. However, the number of subjects 1,155 selected in this second survey is lower than the 1,174 selected in the first survey. The second notable feature is that the response to the survey was greater than that in 1994 (See Table1 1).

  Third, a deeper analysis was made in relation to R&D areas and their respective objectives and future significance. The two elements of S&T level and significance of R&D in each area were indicated in a 2X2 matrix.

  Fourth, respondents estimated that developing S&T technology would require about 5-6 years longer than what they had proposed for the same or similar subject area in the first survey. Although this is an indication that there was more optimism in 1994, it can also be interpreted as scientists' taking a more cautious approach to S&T development, particularly with respect to the financial crisis and the restructuring it entailed for the S&T sector.

  In addition, respondents indicated S&T issues were less significant but more scientifically developed compared to 1994, meaning essentially that Korea has made great strides in technological innovation over the years.

  Fifth, the recent survey offers illustrations for an overview of key technologies that will impact the future life.

5. Survey Results

1) Important R&D Areas

  The level of significance for the 15 S&T areas averaged 65 points as shown in Fig 2.

  The area that received the most points for significance was health & medical care with 72.7, followed by agriculture & fisheries with 72.8. Life sciences were next with 71.4. Those areas that received the least amount of points for significance were aircraft, astronomy & space and ultra technology, both with 57.1. Also receiving points less than the average for significance were transportation (59.5) and energy, resource & atomic energy (59.7). The environment rated about average with 64.9% for significance. This outcome is influenced by the general opinion of experts placing more emphasis on development rather than environmental issues because of the financial crisis.

2) Top 100 S&T Subjects in Significance

  The top 100 in the 15 S&T areas include 23 subjects related to health & medical care, 19 in the life science field, and 18 in the agriculture & fisheries area. Only one subject in the areas of earth & marine sciences and ultra technology, respectively,

  Ranked among the top 100. Table 2 offers an overview of Korea's S&T development and policy goals for the next 25 years until 2025.

3) Comparison of R&D levels

  Korea's R&D level is 47.1% of that of advanced countries as shown in Fig.3. Korea achieved the highest level of R&D in the area of telecommunications with 55.5% compared to advanced countries. Those areas marking more than 50% include transportation, electronics/information, and chemicals & process.

  Telecommunications and electronics/information have been established as Korea's industries, while transportation and chemicals & process can be said to be at relatively mature development stages. Korea's R&D level in the aircraft, space & astronomy and earth/marine science areas was among the lowest with 31.9 and 43.1%, respectively. These fields are considered capital-intensive areas and beyond Korea's budgetary priorities, as reflected by their low levels of development compared to advanced countries, which are able to invest heavily into these big science fields. Hence, Korea must select a few specific technologies from the more costly sectors that are deemed strategically important for long-term national development. The fact that the level of R&D in the areas of life sciences and health & medical care are low and their significant are high indicates that these fields are deemed essential to improving the people's quality of life and should be strategically promoted by the government in the future.

3) Relationship between Signification and R&D Level in Each Area

  Fig.4 shows the relationship between significance and R&D level in all 15 areas.

1. The quadrant I shows the areas in which both the significance and R&D levels are high, such as electronics/information, telecommunications, agriculture & fisheries, and fine chemicals & process fields. As the technology areas of electronics/information and telecommunications constitute the pillars of the knowledge-driven society in the 21st century, the government should devise a plan to advance these areas so that Korea may emerge as a leading technological global force.
2. The quadrant II shows the areas high in significance but low R&D levels such as health & medical care, life sciences and environment & safety. These fields are closely connected to public welfare and quality of life. As their impact on the future and significance are expected to grow, the government should create conditions for shifting these science fields to the first quadrant.
3. The quadrant III reveals areas low in both significance and R&D level, such as earth/marine science and ultra technology, and aircraft, space & astronomy. These areas are not fully explored despite their recognized growth potential as a new science field in the 21st century. They require intensive capital input that only a government budget could provide, yet market failure in their development would incur great costs for the national economy. Hence, the government should selectively invest in a small number of scientific research areas within these sectors that are appropriate for Korea's domestic environment
4. The quadrant IV indicates areas in which the R&D level is high but significance is deemed to be low, such as materials, urbanization, civil engineering & construction, machine, production & processing, transportation and energy, resources & atomic energy areas. The technology for machine, production & processing and materials development have reached its height of majority, having long been considered important and served as the backbone of Korea's industrial development. In order to move these areas into the quadrant I, efforts for technological innovation should be pursued continuously, Urbanization, civil engineering & construction, transportation and energy, resources & atomic energy areas need more investment in the form of social overhead capital or infrastructure.

4) Predicted Time periods for realization of New Technology

  Fig.5 presents the range of predicted time periods for realization of new technology in Korea and advanced countries. Among the 1,155 subjects in Korea, it was predicted that the largest portion of 600 subjects or 52.0% would be realized between 2006 and 2010. Next, 425 subjects or 36.8% would be realized in 2011-2015. In the most advanced countries, 528 (42.7%) subjects were predicted for realization between 2006 and 2010, followed by 502 subjects (43.5%) in 2001-2005. Of the 1155 subjects, Korea will improve the technological level of 88.8% of these subjects between 2006 and 2015, translating into a five-year gap between Korea and advanced countries. In particular, Korea will see the areas of telecommunications and machine, production & processing improve quickly, whereas aircraft, space & astronomy and life science will see a relatively slow improvement. Of the total 1,155 subjects, the largest number of 473 (35.2%) subjects showed that Korea is five to six years behind advanced countries. 97 (8.4%) subjects showed Korea to be behind by 7-8 years; 86(7.4%) subjects showed Korea to be behind by 0-2 years. Overall, Korea is behind by 3-8 years in most science subjects, but the areas of electronics/information, telecommunications and environment reveal a shorter discrepancy of 0-4 years.

  In the field of aircraft, space & astronomy, 75.4% of its subjects reveal a 10-year lag for Korea compared to advanced countries, indicating that Korea's R&D capacity is still far behind that of advanced countries (See Fig.6).

6. Conclusions

  Subjects that recorded identical or similar in both of the surveys in 1994 and 1999 numbered 279, or 24.2% of the total 1,155. Compared to the first (1994) survey, those areas garnering responses of higher significance include electronics/information, life sciences and health & medical care. On the other hand, a marked decline in significance was recorded in earth/marine science, chemical & process and ultra technology field. The second survey (1999) showed that the R&D level has sharply improved in such areas as electronics/information, telecommunications, transportation, environment, and chemical & process. However, earth/marine science and agriculture & fisheries technologies dropped in their R&D levels, while road progress was made in most of the other fields. The anticipated time of technological realizations was more conservative as respondents estimated that it would require about 5-6 years longer than what they had proposed in the first survey in 1994.

  Although this may indicate scientists were more optimistic in 1994, it can also be interpreted as scientists' taking a more cautious approach to S&T development, particularly with respect to the financial crisis and the IMF-mandated restructuring process both in the public and private sectors, including S&T areas.

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